What are the odds of winning at Blackjack

Blackjack is one of the most popular casino games in both land-based and online casinos. Understanding Blackjack odds, how they work and how to use them to your advantage makes the game even more exciting and more profitable. We’ve made sure that, with the help of our summary, you have all the available information in one place and can get to grips with Blackjack odds, probability, house edge and how to maximise your bets.

Blackjack Rules

Blackjack rules are fairly straightforward. Once you understand them, it will be much easier to see how odds and probability work in Blackjack. We’ve therefore put together a few key points to walk you through the most important basics. You’ll find a detailed explanation in the article covering Blackjack rules.

In Blackjack, each card has a specific value. Cards 2 through 10 are worth their face value. Cards such as the jack, queen and king are each worth 10. Aces are flexible and can count as 1 or 11, depending on which value works better for your hand. The aim of Blackjack is to have a higher total than the dealer without going over 21. If your hand goes over 21, you automatically lose your bet. Hitting exactly 21 is a blackjack and means an automatic win.

What are odds in Blackjack?

Before we get into blackjack odds, let’s first go over odds in general. Odds show you two things: the chance of winning a particular bet and how much you’ll win if your bet comes in. In Blackjack, there are two sets of odds: the player’s odds (that’s you) and the dealer’s odds. If you’re playing online, the dealer will be the computer, except in live Blackjack. Let’s take a closer look at each option.

Blackjack odds – the player’s role

There are several ways to increase your chances in Blackjack using refined techniques such as card counting, although this isn’t possible when playing online. If you’re interested in the topic, take a look at our article on card counting in Blackjack.

However, there are also ways the casino can reduce your chances of winning. The casino can lower your odds by reducing payout rates, adding more decks to the game, or introducing rules such as removing the rule that allows you to double your bet after splitting. For this reason, the best way to identify any edge you might have is to understand Blackjack probabilities precisely. In the table below, you’ll find Blackjack odds showing your probability of going bust if you choose to hit after the dealer deals your first two cards.

Blackjack odds – the dealer’s role

All casinos apply a house edge. Because of this, the dealer will always have the advantage and a better chance of winning at Blackjack than you. The fact that the dealer plays after you and can make decisions based on your outcome is proof of that. But keep in mind that individual casino rules affect the game and the likelihood of the dealer making Blackjack. For example, a dealer who must hit on soft 17 has a better chance of winning than one who must stand on soft 17. Below, you can compare the chances of the dealer going bust (over 21) and how a change in casino rules can affect it.

Probability of winning at Blackjack depending on the number of decks in play

What are the chances of winning at Blackjack?

Your win percentage in Blackjack, or your chances of winning, can be as high as 42.22%. That doesn’t mean the remaining 57.78% automatically goes to the casino. Instead, there’s a third outcome where the round ends in a push, which is a tie between the player and the dealer. On average, when playing Blackjack, we have an 8.48% chance of ending in a tie. In other words, the probability of losing at Blackjack is around 49.10%. You can certainly tip the probability of winning more in your favour if you use one of the Blackjack bonuses.

Your chances of winning at Blackjack can vary and depend to a large extent on the game variant you choose. They also depend on the rules used for the player and the dealer, and on how you play the game. For example, if you place random bets instead of sticking to a solid strategy, your chances of winning will drop significantly. If you want to improve your chances of winning, we recommend learning Blackjack properly and implementing one or two strategies so your approach is clear and runs smoothly. You can find out which Blackjack strategies you can choose from in our article on the topic.

What are the chances of winning across different Blackjack games?

Since your chances of winning at Blackjack largely depend on the variant you choose to play, it’s important to explore the different game types and their pros and cons.

American blackjack

American Blackjack is a game you’ll find at most online casinos. This variation is played with a 52-card deck. Here, the probability of winning at Blackjack is 42.22%, while the chance of being dealt a Blackjack is 4.75%. Because the house edge for American Blackjack is usually 0.61%, it means that if you stake $100 on the game, the casino will take $0.61 on average. As the payout for this variant is set at 3/2, you’ll receive 1.5x your original stake if you win your bet. To clarify, if you stake $100 and win, your profit will be $150 and your total return will be $250 (original stake + profit).

European blackjack

European blackjack differs slightly from the classic variant. Here, you play with two 52-card decks. What’s more, in this version the dealer stands on soft 17, but because their cards aren’t revealed, you can end up betting unnecessarily if they already have a winning hand. As all these factors balance each other out, the odds of Blackjack in the European playing style are very close to those of classic Blackjack, at around 42%. While European payouts are also set at 3/2, the game is more profitable because it has a lower house edge of 0.39%, which means your winnings will be higher overall.

Blackjack Switch

Another available variant of this game in online casinos is called Blackjack Switch. Here you play two hands, while following the rules of American Blackjack. During play, however, you can “switch” between the hands. For example, if you have 4 and 12 in one hand and 9 and 10 in the other, you can swap the 4 and 9 to finish with 21 (Blackjack) in one hand and 14 in the other. Blackjack Switch has the same probability as other variants, set at 42%. The house edge for Switch is also lower than classic Blackjack, at 0.58%, which is one of the lowest available. However, the payout on Switch is set at 1 to 1, meaning winnings are lower than in American Blackjack. With a $100 stake, you’ll only win back $100 plus, as standard, your original stake.

Face up 21

In this popular version of the game, all cards are dealt face up, so you can see the dealer’s cards. Here, the probability of winning is around 42%. But remember that in Face Up, a push doesn’t end in a tie, but a loss. The house edge in this variant is relatively high at 0.85%, and Blackjack pays only 1/1. As a result, players looking to make a profit don’t usually choose this variant. However, it’s great for new players who want to practise their strategy, or for those who just want to play for fun.

Free bet Blackjack

In this unique variation, you can add certain extras to the game for free. For example, you can split or use one card for one hand and the other for the second if they match. Alternatively, you can double down or increase your stake mid-game if you have a hard 9, hard 10, or hard 11. Free Bet Blackjack has a high house edge of 1%; however, the 3/2 payout balances this out slightly.

Video Blackjack

When you play Blackjack against a computer in an online casino, it’s generally called video Blackjack. Here, the casino uses random number generator (RNG) software to create outcomes, ensuring fair play. In this version, you usually play with just one deck. The house edge can range from 0.5% to 2% depending on the casino you register with. The payout here again ranges between 1/1 and 3/2.

Live Blackjack

If you’re looking for a more authentic Blackjack experience online, then playing with live dealers is the way to go. Here you can enjoy a live casino game from the comfort of your home. Generally, live Blackjack with a live dealer follows the rules and format of classic Blackjack. The Blackjack house edge here ranges between 0.49% and 0.72%, depending on the casino you choose. In addition, payouts here are usually set at 3/2.

Comparing odds: Blackjack variations

Although you can always use a Blackjack odds calculator to work out the odds for each of the variants above, we’ve decided to make it easier for you and put together a comparison table:

Blackjack combinations

Besides standard Blackjack, you also have access to several other variants and side bets you can play. These change the odds in Blackjack and the payout you receive, so it’s essential to know what’s what, how they work, and what impact they have on your chances.

Insurance

One of the most popular side bets used in Blackjack is insurance. This bet, available in all variants of the game, lets you protect half of your stake. In other words, if the dealer has an Ace showing and makes Blackjack, you’ll still receive a payout and can recoup some of your losses.

Surrender

If you suspect that the odds of winning Blackjack aren’t in your favour in a given round, the casino may allow you to surrender. There are two ways to do this:

Early surrender

Early surrender allows you to give up half your bet before the dealer checks whether they have Blackjack. However, online casinos rarely offer this option.

Late surrender

Late surrender allows you to give up half your bet after the dealer checks their cards. Generally, this option is standard in casinos.

Number of decks used

The number of decks a casino offers in a game of Blackjack ranges from one to eight. While the probability of winning Blackjack remains unchanged, the probability of being dealt a Blackjack (21) varies. In addition, the number of decks used affects the house edge, with the value shifting by 0.56% from a single-deck game to an 8-deck game.

21+3

This side bet lets you wager on the value of the dealer’s upcard and your first two cards. There are five outcomes you can put your money on, and below we’ll look at each of them and their relevant odds:

Although the odds offered on 21+3 are excellent, the chance of actually landing one of these bets is tiny. What’s more, keep in mind that the house edge is high, ranging between 6.29% and 8.78%, depending on the number of decks used. However, things work slightly in reverse here, because the more decks are in play, the lower the house edge.

Perfect Pairs

This bet works similarly to 21+3, but here you focus only on your own cards and their combinations. There are three Perfect Pairs bets you can place:

While the payout odds here are impressive, the probability is extremely low.

Doubling down

This option allows you to double your stake mid-hand. While the Blackjack payout odds remain the same (3:2), you can double your winnings because you’ve essentially bet on the outcome twice.

Splitting

Some casinos offer the option to split, where you can “split” your first two cards into two separate hands. However, the casino also requires you to place a second bet on the newly created second hand.

Splitting can work in your favour if the dealer has a weak hand. The Blackjack payout odds here remain 3:2.

6 to 5 payout

While 3:2 Blackjack payouts are common in casinos, 6:5 payouts are becoming more popular as the standard Blackjack payout in Vegas. However, it’s important to note the difference:

• A 3:2 payout returns 1.5x your original stake
• A 6:5 payout returns 1.2x your original bet

In other words, a 6:5 payout offers a lower return and can lead to losing money. As a result, if a casino offers both 3:2 and 6:5, always choose the 3:2 option.

Understanding Blackjack payouts

Your Blackjack payout depends on the casino you’re playing at. A casino will typically offer a Blackjack payout of 3:2 with a house edge of around 0.5%. However, other casinos may offer payout odds of 6:5 or 1:1 (even money). The payout odds a casino provides directly affect the house edge.

Since Blackjack payouts are relatively straightforward and are usually set at 3:2, 6:5 or 1:1, they’re easy to work out. The impact they have on the house edge is a bit more complex, though. To make it easier, we’ve created the payout chart below:

Probability in Blackjack

Although the terms odds and probability are often used interchangeably, they don’t mean the same thing and there are a few key differences. We explain the differences below:

Probability

Probability tells us how likely it is that we’ll win our Blackjack bet. Calculating probability is simple: we divide the approximate chance of winning by all possible available outcomes.

Odds

Blackjack odds illustrate the likelihood and the amount we receive in payouts for a specific bet. For example, if we have five cards and can choose only one, our odds are 4:1. Here we have four chances of losing and one chance of winning. In most cases, however, the second figure doesn’t actually represent the chance of winning at Blackjack, but instead the payout offered for a specific bet.

Probability of Winning in Blackjack

Playing Blackjack with a single 52-card deck increases the probability of being dealt a Blackjack (21) to 32/663, or 4.83%. In other words, your chances are 1 in every 20 hands.

However, if you visit top-rated online gambling sites that use RNG software, the probability of a Blackjack remains fixed at 4.83%, provided you’re playing single-deck Blackjack. If you switch to multi-deck Blackjack, the probability drops, but only by a minimal amount. For example, six decks typically have a probability of 4.75%. Because we don’t want you to spend time working out the probability for different numbers of decks using a Blackjack odds calculator, we’ve put together the following chart:

Blackjack casino advantage – House edge

Blackjack stands out as one of the casino games with the lowest house edge. By using blackjack strategies, you can reduce the casino’s advantage even further and swing the odds more in your favour. Below, we take an in-depth look at the house edge and how it works.

What does House Edge mean in Blackjack?

House edge refers to the casino’s odds advantage over its players. Since the casino offers you the chance to enjoy the game, it takes a certain commission for it, and the house edge can be used to calculate the percentage of each bet they can count as profit. Land-based and online casinos use the game rules to calculate the house edge in blackjack that they apply. Enforcing a house edge is one of the ways a casino minimises losses when you land a big win. What’s more, the house edge reduces the likelihood that you’ll win your game, which helps the casino maintain its profits and advantage. Blackjack is popular with players because it has one of the most favourable house edges among casino games. However, remember a few things—for example, while traditional blackjack can have very low odds against you, different blackjack variations may have a slightly higher house edge.

How to minimise the House Edge

The best way to reduce the house edge in blackjack and increase your chances of winning is to know what decision to make and when—for example, when to stand and when to hit. Keeping a cool, controlled approach to the game is also very important. While it’s easy to get carried away by the excitement of the game, it’s in these moments that you can start making mistakes. So stick to your chosen strategy and stay objectively focused on your style of play.

Blackjack Return to Player – RTP

RTP, or Return to Player, is the opposite of the house edge. This figure highlights the expected return you’ll achieve by playing a large number of hands. In other words, while the house edge states the casino’s advantage, RTP highlights the player’s advantage. For example, if the game you’re playing has an RTP of 97%, it means that for every $100 you stake, you’ll get an average long-term return of $97. However, there’s no guarantee that this will actually happen. Blackjack offers a relatively high RTP of 99.5%, although it can vary depending on the online version you’re playing, with popular titles usually offering a higher RTP. You can always check the RTP of an online game in the game info panel. Keep in mind that it’s always best to choose the game with the highest RTP.

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